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Sina blog alpine town login registration [share] four major trends in the future in KK's eyes

Kevin Kelly, author of out of control and founding editor of Wired magazine, shared the major trends of Internet in the next decade at the 2013 Tencent smart summit. He summarized them into four key words: "screen", "sharing", "attention" and "flow"

the theme of the 2013 Tencent smart summit is "wisdom takes the lead and leads the future". At the meeting, Kevin Kelly pointed out that people have become screen people, and the screen has changed everything. And this screen is not necessarily flat, it can be mobile or mobile. For example, Google (Weibo) The appearance of glasses makes the screen wearable. He believes that Google glasses will turn the screen into our second pair of eyes

Kevin Kelly said that in the era of multiple screens, screens constitute a complete ecosystem. Screens are everywhere and interdependent. Social media and mainstream media are interdependent, and there is no independent media. He also pointed out that the development of the media is moving in a mixed direction

about sharing, he said that for every share and every thing you do, ownership is no longer important, and acquisition is becoming more and more important. He believes that now we have not reached the limit of sharing

the following is the transcript of Kevin Kelly's speech:

Hello, I'm Kevin Kelly. I am very happy to return to China. I like China very much, because I firmly believe that the future of the world lies in China

let's take a look at the long-term future. I am going to draw a picture for you this morning to show you what the future is like

I have four suggestions in this slide. The first is the screen. You can look at the screen behind it. We have screens everywhere. In the western world, reading was the essence of our culture in the past, such as legal provisions, documents, and the Bible. These are all book culture. We feel that this era has changed, and we have become screen people. The screen has changed everything, because it changes quickly. We don't talk about the author anymore. We have our own ideas, and we can see the screen everywhere in our life. For example, on the building surface of grocery stores, gas stations and buildings, now everything is displayed on tablets, and the screens everywhere may be very cheap

some people look forward, some people look back. We are all looking at the screen now, including the first screen, the second screen and the third screen. On the one hand, some people are watching TV, on the other hand, they are watching computers, and they are still playing. Therefore, in the era of multiple screens, these screens constitute an ecosystem

what we call ecology is like the ecosystem of the biosphere. If you want to plant apples, you must have bees. If you want to have bees, you must have flowers. If you have flowers, you must have ants. Therefore, you cannot complete the ecosystem or part of the ecosystem alone

now we have twitter and Facebook. Facebook may have other content, such as Weibo and blog, which depend on mainstream media, and the content of mainstream media depends on bloggers, so there is no independent entity or independent media. The media itself has become such an ecosystem. In order to plant apple trees or cultivate such a group of customers, you should understand that they are interdependent, interdependent, and interdependent with other media. Without media as an island, they must interact in the network

of course, sometimes it becomes an organism. For example, iPad is very close to our life, which is also very important. If you look at these children playing iPad, writing on it, or moving, all through gestures, actions, no longer typing, so it is different. And it doesn't have to be flat. Now the screen is becoming more and more flexible, like paper, so sometimes e-books are not necessarily Kindle (Amazon's e-books). Like books, there are hundreds of flexible pages, turning page by page like reading books. Or become another book, so this screen does not have to be printed, it can also be rolled, or it can be made of the same material as clothes, so it becomes very flexible and can be changed into any form

so what I want to say is that our communication is not only typing with fingers, but also using the whole body language. For example, we can communicate with others by waving our arms to the computer. Of course, this is a science fiction movie. In the past, we used to communicate by typing, and in the future, we may communicate with computers by gestures, so we keep breaking the tradition and our standards. You can see that he is operating the 3D operation mode, which is the screen, so the screen is not necessarily flat. It can be mobile or mobile

of course, our evolution is also constantly emerging. For example, all the evolutions of Google are coming out rapidly, so now we can wear this kind of screen and become something to wear. Of course, it's not the one in my eyes. I don't know if it's a good thing, but we will think about it while using it. Its creation is mainly that the screen can become our second pair of eyes, and we can see what is displayed. More importantly, this screen can see us, not only us. For example, Samsung Galaxy S4 can capture eye movements and test the direction you see. Their media lab also does such experiments, which can not only capture the movements of the eyes, but also predict feelings, what you care about, what you don't understand, and what you like, so this media can also be adaptive, and react to you when you use the media, becoming a two-way communication. For example, when I'm talking, I'll know if you pay attention to what I'm saying, or if you're distracted, or if I'm talking on my own. For example, when looking at the station, I understand that the station can give some feedback or give some comments. For example, adding comments becomes an adaptive system

the main development of this kind of media is to hybrid development. You can imagine that you have a book, you are reading this book, but there are movies in the book, so instead of reading, it really becomes reading. Or video, there will be some text in the video that you can read and watch. In the past, I used to watch videos to read books, but now it may be the opposite. I read videos to read books. Now we have all kinds of media, including movies, comic books and websites. Recently, we are constantly creating new types of media and turning them into new art forms and new media. For example, there are more than 100 hours of series, such as lost, which are more than 100 hours of narrative films and TV dramas, which are new media. We also have blogs. For example, we have fans who write novels by themselves, trailers of remixed movies, and 40 hours of video games. These are the types of new media. It may not be displayed like the traditional media before, but we still have operas, musicals and traditional media. We will experience such progress to avoid problems in your test results, that is, new media species will appear in such an ecological environment every year. For example, the previous mixed media, this is the progress we are making

mashup is actually what you are doing now. You may not be able to think of a mashup that combines the two. You may not be able to imagine the mashup of media in the future. Although you often communicate with the media, you can't follow up and understand how many new media platforms are launched every year. This is the era of screen culture, where screens are everywhere and interdependent. To some extent, one screen may depend on another screen. This is the first part I want to say is the ecology of the screen

the second part is sharing. Sharing is a verb for the new economy, which is one thing we do. We have such a cloud. Cloud is everywhere. Everything comes to the cloud. Everyone understands what cloud is. One knowledge problem we don't know is whether there are one cloud or many clouds. We really didn't ask this question, or we don't understand it. We have Google cloud and Tencent cloud. We don't know whether we are one cloud or many clouds. But to some extent, everything will go to the cloud. What is in the cloud? It is composed of big data, including these big data. These big data itself is a new media, which is actually a process. This is what is happening. This is the most important new media. In fact, this is what our final content depends on, that is, big data. We share these things and share them after we produce them. We used to think of it as some private and private information, but now we find it very urgent to share this information

our comments on this know what happened around us. Of course, if allowed, we can share everything. In the next ten to twenty years, we may find that the degree of our sharing is much higher than now. In fact, something interesting is happening in the process of sharing, that is, a change from ownership to acquisition. For example, there is a cloud that I can always access and log in. For example, if there is a music event that can be obtained at any time, why do you still have it? It's basically free. The answer is that you don't need to own it. Owning it becomes a disadvantage. You have to constantly upgrade, backup, have system support, and keep it safe. If you want to own it, there are many. 1. Focus on building a world-class industry event in the new material industry. These are more and more more benefits, so for users, I no longer need to own these, as long as I can buy, use and obtain them. We don't necessarily mean to buy music, but the way to get music applications. For example, for movies in the United States, we no longer buy movies to watch, but we make some customization to get the way to watch movies. Books will also be like this. I don't know yet, but I predict that Amazon will provide all the digital books you think of. For example, 99 dollars a year, including years, is digital, and you can read digital books anytime, anywhere. So it has become such a transformation, which is very fundamental, and it is a digital transformation

of course, this basic change is from ownership to acquisition. In the past, our society was dominated by ownership, but now it has become dominated by acquisition. We have gained more than we have. Of course, this is achieved by sharing. You can share music, books, digital sharing and other sharing, such as 3D printing, which can be printed at home. Maybe the print shop in the community will print and customize it, or borrow it, which is also in the media