The hottest paper price rises fiercely. Individual

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The rise of paper price is fierce, and individual stocks soar all the way. There is still room for periodic dividends

release date: Source: first finance and economics

in the morning of March 1, the paper sector led the A-share market. As of press time, Qifeng new material rose by the limit, Shanying international rose by more than 6%, and Zhongshun jierou, Chenming paper, Bohui paper and other stocks followed suit

the paper industry leader reappears the rising tide of prices

according to the data monitoring of Business News Agency: the overall trend of waste paper prices rose steadily in February 2021. As of February 26, the average purchase price of grade a waste yellow paperboard was 2458.57/ton, which was 35.71/ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average purchase price on February 1 was 2422.86/ton), an increase of 1.47%. The price of corrugated paper was also affected by the rise in raw material prices. As of February 26, the average reference ex factory price of 140g corrugated base paper was 3725/ton (including tax), which was 225/ton higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average ex factory price on February 1 was 3500/ton), an increase of 6.43%

the paper analysts of business society believe that the whole paper industry is in a rising state after the Spring Festival. With the domestic epidemic completely controllable, there is little resistance for enterprises to resume production, and the increase of residents' consumption activities, which have played a positive role in the future market development. In addition, driven by the policies of "plastic restriction order" and "waste prohibition order", the demand for raw materials and paper packaging will increase, and it is expected that the price of waste paper and corrugated box paperboard may be stronger in the short term

at the same time, on February 26, the leading paper enterprises sent another price increase letter. According to the data, the paper industry leaders, including jinhuasheng, Chenming Group, Jianghe paper and Taiyang paper, have issued announcements to raise the price of their paper products, with a price increase of 1000 per ton

jinhuasheng: all special paper sold by jinhuasheng, including carbon free carbon copy paper, thermal paper and deep-processing products, will be increased by 1000/ton on the current price basis; Chenming Group: from March 1, the delivery price of Chenming thermal paper series products will be increased by 1000/ton; Jianghe paper: from March 1, the price of thermal paper series products will be increased by 1000/ton; Sun paper: from March 1, the warehouse out began to be adjusted. All products will be increased by 1000/ton based on the current price, and will continue to increase according to the rising range of raw material prices

on the eve of the Spring Festival holiday, Nine Dragons Paper, the leading paper enterprise, has announced its price increase plan after the Spring Festival, and will increase the price/ton of corrugated paper and box board from February 22. On the first working day after the Spring Festival, Shanying paper, another leading paper enterprise, also issued a price increase letter, announcing that the price/ton of corrugated paper and box board will be increased from February 18, further strengthening the main tone of the continued rise in paper prices after the year

there is still room for cyclical dividends in the sector

on the secondary market, since the end of December, a number of new technologies for paper-making composite membrane regeneration have made great efforts & nbsp; Plastic packaging to achieve "zero landfill" the share price of listed companies has been singing with the rise of pulp prices. As of February 28, Shanying international has increased by more than 26%, Qifeng new material has increased by 23.55%, and Nine Dragons Paper should be loosened by more than 15%

according to CICC's analysis, with good demand and rising prices of raw materials (the supply gap of waste paper appears, which is expected to rise significantly, and the price of wood pulp is expected to recover from the bottom), the paper industry is expected to usher in an upward market as a whole in 2021, and the price hubs of box board paper, white board and cultural paper are expected to see year-on-year improvement. At the same time, in 2021, the newly invested capacity is expected to contribute to the output of the whole year. With the recovery of superimposed demand, the capacity utilization rate will rise, and the leader is expected to usher in the simultaneous rise of volume and price, with considerable performance flexibility

according to Zheshang securities, the waste import volume outside the year continued to shrink, from a high of 40.08 million tons to 6.68 million tons, and is expected to be completely cleared in 21 years. Leading box and board enterprises will extend upstream, and the integration advantage will be more obvious. According to its incomplete statistics, the national waste pulp supply is expected to reach nearly 6million tons in 21 years, including 850000 tons of nine dragons, 1.1 million tons of sun, 1.08 million tons of Levin, 1.18 million tons of Jingxing and 1.5 million tons of Shanying

therefore, the leading companies in the industry have gradually built strong barriers by virtue of the supply of waste pulp. In 2020, the top four companies of box board paper and corrugated paper head reached 52.2% and 22.9% respectively, which has increased to varying degrees compared with 2019. Among them, the pattern of carton board is better, and the optimization is significantly faster than that of corrugated paper. At the same time, in the context of China's economic recovery and the rise in overseas pulp and waste paper prices, domestic waste paper prices also rose. Following the price rise letter issued by nine dragons in February, 21, it is expected that the company will still have price increases in the future

from the operation law of the inventory cycle, it is currently in the switching stage of passive destocking and active inventory adding cycle. Under the demand of the market for replenishment of inventory, the shipment volume of wood pulp and the inventory of suppliers have decreased, and the pulp and paper prices have risen rapidly. Judging from the continuous upward trend of pulp futures prices, the prices of wood pulp paper represented by white cardboard, copper paperboard, double offset paper, etc. are expected to rise further, and there is still room for the cyclical dividend of the paper sector

in this cycle of dividends, compared with outsourced wood pulp, the cost of self-made wood pulp is usually low. Therefore, nine dragons chose to increase its weight upstream. In the process of linkage and upward price linkage of pulp and paper, leading companies with self-sufficiency in wood pulp can control the supply of raw materials, maintain relatively stable costs, enjoy the increase in product prices, and obtain thickened performance. After its share price is adjusted and stabilized, the new capacity will be gradually released in the future, It is still worthy of attention in the medium and long term

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